For most of my career as a family physician I have told patients and firmly believed that the hardest part of being a good family doctor is uncertainty. Almost every time I see a patient there is some uncertainty in the diagnosis, choice of treatment and in what to expect from the recommended treatment. Making decisions as to how much uncertainty to accept, when to seek a higher level of certainty, and how to present this all to my patients in a way that is both reassuring and truthful is the crux of the art of the practice of medicine.
When I see a patient with a typical fatty lump I’m confident is a lipoma, or a firm well circumscribed dermal level skin lesion I’m certain is a dermatofibroma, the level of uncertainty is very low. In these cases I feel very good about telling my patients their diagnosis and that no further diagnostic evaluation is needed, with the proviso that if the behavior of the lesion changes to let me look at it again. Certainly we could have a higher level of certainty if I excised all of these lesions and sent them for microscopic pathology evaluation, but the known risks of this option, i.e. scarring, pain, cost and risk of complications seem to clearly outweigh accepting a very low degree of uncertainty. This same balancing act plays out with nearly every office visit. Is the chest pain cardiac, reflux esophagitis or chest wall musculoskeletal pain? Is the headache a tension headache or something more serious like an aneurysm or a brain tumor? Making decisions about when to live with some level of uncertainty is the real decision.
Just today I was struck with the flip side of uncertainty. The beauty of our human existence is by its very nature filled with uncertainty. We all certainly will die, but when, how, and where are all uncertain. The exact prognosis for most disease processes is quite uncertain. My wife has ovarian cancer, and although she has accepted chemotherapy exceptionally well, has had very limited complications of the initial course of therapy and the second course after her first relapse, she is now in a time of waiting to decide when to treat the gradually increasing tumor marker that haunts us and tells us the cancer is not gone, it’s just lurking and trying to come back. After an all-too-brief three month hiatus of no CA-125 testing we anticipated a fairly high number, and were pleased yesterday when the marker came back only modestly higher than prior to the level three months ago. This was a reminder that nothing about this cancer is certain. The long term prognosis is poor, but what does that mean? Nothing is certain. Kay may live many months or even a year or two (or more?) before needing more treatment. The next treatment, whatever that turns out to be may be highly effective, totally ineffective, or anywhere in between. A poor prognosis maybe, but the uncertainty in times like this gives room for hope. Will a breakthrough in ovarian cancer happen in time for us? More uncertainty.
For some patients living with uncertainty is difficult, anxiety provoking, and hard to accept. In our situation I give thanks for the uncertainty. It is far easier to remain upbeat, positive and hopeful when a future that could be looked upon as filled with negatives has some uncertainty.
When you really think about life nearly everything is uncertain. As a Christian I feel confident that salvation is a certainty, but that is faith based. When I look at objective expectations nearly everything has some degree of uncertainty. Uncertainty is so much a part of our lives that we take great care to plan for the uncertainty. Insurance, be it health insurance, homeowner’s insurance, life insurance or auto insurance we are paying for insurance against uncertainty. Actuaries mathematically calculate the premiums of our insurance based on multiple sets of data and assumptions, but all of their calculations come with calculated degrees of confidence. On each of our medical study conclusions you will see a p-value. The lower the p-value the less likely the conclusion is wrong by random chance. You will never see a p-value of zero.
So this Thanksgiving I am giving thanks to my God for the uncertainties our lives. May we come to cherish this uncertainty, live each day and each minute with the certainty that there is some uncertainty about what the next minute, hour, day, week … will bring. May I continue to strive to achieve the optimal achievable levels of uncertainty in my management of my patient’s health care decisions, and may the uncertainties in my own and my family’s lives be a blessing so that we live each minute with only the certainty that we have the this minute to enjoy and cherish.
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to try to improve the estimation of a woman’s risk for having a trisomy-21, or Down’s syndrome pregnancy without actually obtaining fetal cells, but all they have really done is improve statistical prediction capability. Up to this point in order to tell if a woman is carrying a Down’s Syndrome baby required amniocentesis to obtain amniotic fluid at about 16-18 weeks gestation, or the arguably higher risk chorioamniotic villous sampling at 10-12 weeks gestation. Both of these tests ran low (estimated 1/350) but real risks of fetal injury and miscarriage. Now from a company named Sequenom™ comes a test on fetal cells obtained by a venous blood sample of the pregnant women’s blood as early as 10 weeks gestation that can do genetic screening for Down’s Syndrome without more invasive ways to obtain fetal cells. The initial study of 212 women showed a >99% accuracy rate. (1 false positive, 2 false negatives in 212 women tested).

The Real Costs of Defensive Medicine
by Brittany Lyons
With estimates ranging from $35 billion to a whopping $850 billion, the true costs of “defensive medicine” are difficult to pinpoint. A variety of government reports, physician surveys and studies have attempted to pinpoint exactly how much of U.S. healthcare costs are generated by defensive medicine, but the varied definitions of “defensive medicine” make the real number hard to determine.
Defensive medicine refers to the costs associated with doctors protecting themselves from medical malpractice lawsuits. These costs include liability insurance premiums, malpractice judgments and settlements, and sometimes extend to unnecessary testing or other physician services provided to patients solely to avoid malpractice claims. Indirect costs associated with defensive medicine can also include “assurance behaviors,” such as ordering tests or delivering additional services that have only marginal medical value, or no value at all, to discourage malpractice lawsuits—which can cost more than even earning PhDs. A 2005 study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association discovered that doctors may perform these unnecessary services in the hopes that if a malpractice claim were to arise, the court would be satisfied that the physician met the standard of care.
A Look Behind the Numbers
The Congressional Budget Office estimated that defensive medicine accounted for $35 billion—or 0.2 percent—of the total U.S. healthcare expenditures for 2009. This figure is significantly lower than the estimated $650 to $850 billion in annual expenditures attributed to defensive medicine by Gallup and Jackson Healthcare surveys of physicians. The Jackson Healthcare survey gathered data from thousands of physicians across the United States on the indirect and direct costs generated by defensive medicine, concluding that physicians considered defensive medicine the primary driving force behind rising healthcare costs—the result of an overly litigious healthcare environment.
Nine out of ten surveyed physicians said they practice defensive medicine, and general estimates predicted an average of 34 percent of overall healthcare costs arise from defensive medicine. A subsequent Gallup poll of physicians found that approximately 73 percent of surveyed physicians admitted to practicing defensive medicine within the past year, but estimated overall costs at only 26 percent. The 2005 JAMA study by researchers from Columbia and Harvard Universities also revealed that for physicians practicing in “high-risk” specialties, these monetary figures may be much higher; 59 percent of the physicians surveyed admitted to ordering more diagnostic tests than medically necessary to prevent malpractice litigation. Plus, the physicians avoided caring for high-risk patients, referred patients to other specialists, prescribed more medications than medically necessary and suggested unneeded invasive procedures—all to avoid malpractice lawsuits. Another study by the American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons discovered that defensive medicine accounts for a startling 20 percent of all imaging orders, and half of these imaging orders were for expensive MRIs.
Why the Disparities?
So why is the Budget Office’s number so low when the Jackson Healthcare survey is so high? Because physicians aren’t regularly logging every single expenditure arising from defensive medicine, and no one is entirely sure what even qualifies as “defensive,” quantifying the costs with exact accuracy is nearly impossible. The great differences in estimated costs, however, is likely due to the particular expenditures included in the figures for defensive medicine. For instance, the CBO’s low estimate of $35 billion includes “malpractice insurance premiums together with settlements, awards and administrative costs not covered by insurance,” but does not include unnecessary procedures, medications and other services, so long as they are covered by insurance. This difference in accounting is more than enough to explain the disparity.
The Jackson Healthcare survey adds a myriad of other direct and indirect costs to the CBO’s numbers, including all the excessive diagnostic testing and medical services provided in the spirit of defensive medicine. The survey results then translate the percentages into dollar amounts using the calculations of estimated overall U.S. healthcare spending released by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Thus, this number includes more items than the CBO’s report, and bases its numbers on another estimate.
With healthcare costs rising rapidly in the United States, combined with increasing tort reform and malpractice fears, defensive medicine is becoming a more and more expensive slice of the healthcare-cost pie. Regardless of the actual monetary amount, defensive medicine practices strain not only Medicare and Medicaid, but also the insured and uninsured healthcare consumer alike, contributing to increasing prices for medical services and greater costs to insurance companies. Unless something is done to relieve the legal pressures placed on physicians, defensive medicine will continue to generate billions of dollars in healthcare expenditures every year.
Brittany is a blogger-in-residence at PhDs.org
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